A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
